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Posted by / 18-Dec-2017 15:20

Nber recession dating

If we adjust for inflation using the PCE Price Index, the increase rises to 0.3%, thanks mostly to lower gasoline prices, which contributed to a disinflationary month-over-month decline in the BEA's PCE Price Index.

The chart and table below illustrate the performance of the Big Four with an overlay of a simple average of the four since the end of the Great Recession.

Now let's look at the 1972-1985 period, which included three recessions -- the savage 16-month Oil Embargo recession of 1973-1975 and the double dip of 19-1982 (6-months and 16-months, respectively).

Click for a larger image And finally, for sharp-eyed readers who can don't mind squinting at a lot of data, here's a cluttered chart from 1959 to the present.

I've included recessions to help illustrate the impact of the business cycle on this metric.

In other words, I show successive new highs as zero and the cumulative percent declines of months that aren't new highs.

Data for Q2 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline.

However, the average of these indicators in recent months suggests that, despite the Q2 rebound in GDP, the economy remains near stall speed.

Click for a larger image The chart clearly illustrates the savagery of the last recession.

It was much deeper than the closest contender in this timeframe, the 1973-1975 Oil Embargo recession.

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